Estimating Plutonium Production at Israel’s Dimona Reactor

Israel has used the Dimona reactor in the Negev Desert since the 1960s for unsafeguarded plutonium production. Estimates of cumulative historic production have been very uncertain, however, because the power level of the reactor is unknown, and there is a lack of detail about the reactor design. This analysis presents new estimates of historic plutonium production in Israel based on neutronics calculations for the Dimona reactor (“EL-102”), which is based on a modified version of the French EL-3. We estimate that cumulative production of plutonium to date is 800 ± 125 kg. The paper also includes a critical review of the 1986 testimony by the Dimona technician and whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu, which provided much of the basis for public discussion of the reactor’s power and operation.